Polls Show Split in Senate Race

Minnesota state flag waving in the wind — Photo: rarrarorro / Shutterstock

A late polling split has turned Minnesota’s open Senate race into a test of whether money, scandals, and independents can overcome a blue-state edge.

Story Highlights

Cook Political Report shifted the race toward Republicans, now rated lean Democratic, not likely.
Multiple public polls showed a close contest, but a New York Times/Siena survey found a 14-point Democratic lead.
Republican Michele Tafoya slightly outraised Democrat Peggy Flanagan heading into October.
Prediction markets and averages still gave Flanagan the advantage despite tighter polls.

Why This Blue-State Seat Is Suddenly in Play

Cook Political Report moved Minnesota’s open Senate contest from likely Democratic to lean Democratic. The shift followed signs that Democrat Peggy Flanagan was underperforming other statewide Democrats and that Republican Michele Tafoya was a strong recruit with broad name recognition. The Hill tied the move to a statewide fraud scandal that raised accountability questions for state leaders. This change did not make the race a toss-up, but it signaled real movement.

Polling showed a narrow race for much of October. The Star Tribune and KARE 11 survey found Flanagan 47 percent to 43 percent over Tafoya, with many undecided voters and a margin of error that could tighten the gap. Newsweek highlighted other near-tie results from InsiderAdvantage and Quantus Insights. Those findings suggested that independents and late deciders could matter in a state that usually leans Democratic in federal races.

The Late Polling Split That Changed Expectations

A New York Times and Siena College poll reported a 54 percent to 40 percent Flanagan lead days before voting, clashing with earlier near-tie polls. The survey reset expectations for many observers. Newsweek framed that late result as evidence the race might not be as close as earlier snapshots suggested. When polls disagree, turnout models, sampling, and timing can drive gaps. The split also showed how fast narratives can swing in the final stretch.

Polling averages and handicappers leaned to Flanagan. Decision Desk Headquarters and RealClearPolling averages showed a mid-single-digit Democratic edge. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also rated the race lean Democratic. Prediction markets echoed that stance, assigning Flanagan odds in the mid-80 percent range, with earlier pricing near 90 percent. These tools are not votes, but they shape donor focus and media attention and can drain energy from long-shot efforts.

Money, Message, and the Independent Voter Question

Money narrowed the gap for Tafoya. CNN reported Tafoya raised 4.9 million dollars in the key quarter and held more cash on hand than Flanagan at the start of October. That edge can buy late television and digital ads and boost turnout operations. Yet fundraising did not yield a clear polling lead. The race instead sat on a knife’s edge in some polls and widened in others, leaving campaigns to fight for a shrinking pool of persuadable voters.

JUST IN: Peggy Flanagan has a 90% chance to win the Minnesota Senate race pic.twitter.com/1ZPDoDuTcr

— Kalshi Politics (@KalshiPolitics) October 29, 2026

Fraud and accountability claims added heat but not clear proof against Flanagan. The Hill linked the rating shift partly to a statewide fraud scandal and voter anger about waste. Tafoya pressed that theme, arguing that whistleblowers had warned leaders. The available records did not tie those claims directly to Flanagan’s specific actions. That left the issue potent as a message on trust and competence, but not settled as a verified charge.

How Minnesota’s Map and Trump Factor Shape the Odds

Minnesota’s map still helps Democrats. The Star Tribune and KARE 11 poll found strong Democratic margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, home to many voters. The same survey reported voter unhappiness with President Trump, who remains a lightning rod in the state. Tafoya’s link to national Republicans can energize the base, but it can also push away moderates. In a close race, those cross-pressures can decide a point or two—and the seat.

What to Watch in the Final Days

Watch for late crosstabs on independents and suburbs, where a small swing could flip the result. Look for ad traffic and get-out-the-vote pushes funded by Tafoya’s cash edge. Track whether more polling aligns with the near-tie cluster or with the New York Times and Siena gap. Finally, expect both parties to claim momentum. Voters across the spectrum are tired of waste, rising costs, and insider games. This race will test whether that anger changes a blue-state habit.